‘You Just Kind of Suffer As a Victim of the Market’

Wil Jeske farms wheat and raises cattle on family land near Olney, producing hard red winter wheat for both bread and livestock feed. Like many producers in North Texas, his operation depends on careful timing — buying fertilizer months ahead, balancing input costs against unpredictable commodity prices, and adjusting each season based on what the market will bear.

This year, those calculations have become more uncertain.

Fertilizer prices jumped sharply as conflict in the Middle East intensified, and Jeske said the speed of the increase — layered on top of already volatile markets — is forcing farmers to rethink what they can afford to produce.

Below are excerpts from an interview with Jeske, edited only for clarity.

Enterprise: What have you seen happening with fertilizer prices locally?

Mr. Jeske: Fertilizer prices fluctuate all the time, no matter what. During COVID they got really high and most of that just had to do with transport. It’s moved by trucks and trains and ships just like everything else so it got real high. It had come down some more since then, but when they started bombing Iran, the price that we see here jumped overnight at least 25 percent I priced some nitrogen in February… it was $415 to $425 a ton… The next time I bought some… it was 525 a ton. So it went up a hundred dollars in less than a month.

Enterprise: Do you expect to recover those higher costs in the price you get for wheat?

Mr. Jeske: I don’t think the wheat market has moved enough to cover the 25 percent increase in nitrogen.

Enterprise: Why hasn’t the market adjusted?

Mr. Jeske: The way futures market works… they know when new crop is coming on. … So it won’t have as immediate as an effect.

Most of the time that the price is increased is not a time that people that grow wheat are buying fertilizer. Most of it was already on the ground… So the market knows that.

Enterprise: Are farmers feeling this more immediately?

Mr. Jeske: Now if you’re growing any kind of spring crop… they need to be putting nitrogen on right now. So they are having… and that’s I think another reason for the price spike… it happened at the same time as a natural cyclical surge in demand.

Enterprise: Does this affect your planning going forward?

Mr. Jeske: Absolutely. Because I haven’t bought phosphorus during this higher price timeframe… some of the prices I’ve heard are six and seven and $800 a ton… instead of $400, $500 a ton.

So… when the time comes to plant a crop in the fall, that is definitely something that I… have to think about.

Enterprise: Could higher fertilizer prices change what you plant?

Mr. Jeske: Absolutely. It makes a difference in your yield goal. … If I can fertilize for a 50 bushel crop… I may get that or I may not, but you have to fertilize for it.

When you’re looking at $800 a ton of phosphorus, I’m not going to be able to fertilize for that high-yielding crop. So I’m starting off my year assuming a breakeven yield.

Enterprise: What does that mean in practical terms?

Mr. Jeske: When I say breakeven, I mean paying for the crop inputs… not equipment costs or fuel costs… just the crop inputs.

So when those inputs increase 25 or 50 percent… I’m gonna have to pull back on my intentions of what I can even aim for.

Enterprise: How does that affect cattle operations?

Mr. Jeske: If you are just raising (wheat) as a grazing crop for cattle… it affects the same thing. You’re not gonna put the same pounds of cattle on a poorly fertilized crop that you would on a healthy crop.

Enterprise: Could this affect overall production?

Mr. Jeske: When you have a low price of wheat, and you have a high input cost… it doesn’t pencil out. You say, I need to find something else to do with this.

A lot of times, people will plant a budget wheat crop and graze cattle on it and understand… we’re just not swinging for the fences this year.

Enterprise: What other costs are adding pressure right now?

Mr. Jeske: Diesel fuel… has approached $5… I just kind of suffer as a victim of the market.

I’m looking at harvesting wheat late May, early June, and that requires a lot of diesel.

Enterprise: What would help in the short term?

Mr. Jeske: Short term… would be to find a way for the Middle East oil that’s currently locked up in port to hit the global market… it brings the cost down for fertilizer and fuel.

Enterprise: And long term?

Mr. Jeske: There is a whole lot of anti-monopoly tools that the government already has that they do not use.

There are some… pretty heinous ag monopolies that are allowed for reasons I don’t understand.

Enterprise: What concerns you most looking ahead?

Mr. Jeske: When you’re looking at $800 a ton phosphorus… I’m not going to be able to fertilize for that high-yielding crop.

So you’re starting off behind.