Data center land sales unlikely to drive property values

Sky-high land prices tied to the proposed Project Saltworks data center are unlikely to drive up property values across Young County, according to Chief Appraiser Jesse Blackmon, though the project could still reshape the county’s tax base in the years ahead.

Mr. Blackmon said recent land sales associated with the project are so far outside the normal rural market that they probably will not affect how the Young County Appraisal District values surrounding property. The prices have not been revealed but are reported to be five figures per acre.

“As far as land values, the sale of these particular acres will likely not have any effect on the overall market as these prices will be outside of the median range,” Mr. Blackmon said in an interview with the Enterprise. “Plus, we likely won’t even have the data to use in our sales ratio studies.”

Appraisal districts typically rely on large numbers of comparable land sales to determine market value trends. Mr. Blackmon said the specialized nature of industrial projects, such as data centers, makes them difficult to use as benchmarks for typical ranch or agricultural land sales.

Most evidence from other parts of Texas suggests large industrial facilities rarely change land values across broad areas, he said.

“Industry generally doesn’t impact values either way with the exception of land that is adjacent and truly affected by it,” Mr. Blackmon said. “Most of the time, it is an emotional, knee-jerk reaction that ‘my land and house are worthless now,’ but rarely does it cause major differences in sale prices.”

That reaction has surfaced locally as debate intensifies over Project Saltworks ahead of the 2026 county elections. A vocal group of residents has opposed the siting of large data centers in Young County and criticized potential tax abatements tied to the project.

But the facility could represent one of the largest additions to the county’s tax base in decades.

County officials estimate the data center could ultimately add more than $14 million a year to local government budgets — a significant boost in a county where much of the land is agricultural and receives tax exemptions that limit taxable value.

Mr. Blackmon said the project could shift the tax burden in a way many rural counties rarely experience.

“It really helps shift the tax burden away from current taxpayers to include the data centers,” he said.

Even so, he cautioned that projections about new revenue often assume the project reaches its full estimated value immediately — something that rarely happens in practice.

“While the numbers are accurate, this assumes the $1 billion value right away,” Mr. Blackmon said. “The way tax rate calculations work, it does not necessarily mean that that additional money would hit the books right away.”

Instead, he said, the added value typically becomes part of the formula local governments use each year to set tax rates. That process often results in lower rates or slower increases while still increasing revenue.

“The new value would add to the income stream, but it would likely play a part in decreasing tax rates,” Mr. Blackmon said.

The appraisal district will eventually assess the value of the data center’s buildings and equipment individually, much like any other industrial property. Those values could fluctuate depending on construction costs, economic conditions, and demand for data-center infrastructure.

“If we saw an influx of other industry or changes in supply and demand for these types of facilities, it could impact values,” he said. “But I would imagine we likely won’t see much either direction there any time soon.”

For now, much about the long-term impact of data centers remains uncertain, Mr. Blackmon said.

Even the handful of similar facilities already operating in Texas differ widely in design, location, and surrounding land use, making it difficult to predict how any single project will affect property values.

“It’s hard to gauge on these things,” he said. “Even the few data centers already out there will have so many individual and unique characteristics that it’s hard to give a clear picture.”

One area where he expects little change is the overall direction of rural land prices in Young County.

“Rural land values will keep moving in the positive direction,” Mr. Blackmon said. “That component will be reflective of the rest of the county values.”

In the end, he said, the true financial impact of a large industrial project becomes clear only after it is built, fully appraised and incorporated into the annual tax-rate calculations used by counties, school districts and cities.

“No matter how it all shakes out, it will have a huge impact on values, tax rates and ultimately income to the taxing entities affected,” Mr. Blackmon said. “But it’s hard to paint an approximate picture until everything is in place and all factors are calculated each year.”